NR Capital Research — Brand Sales Dynamics

Initial state (G₀ = 1)

G's offline share 70%

Blended g for G ≈ —

Channel growth rates

Offline growth g_off (shared) 2.0%

G's online growth g_on_G 10.0%

N's online growth g_on_N 25.0%

Entrant shock

Shock time t_shock 8

Portion taken from G (a) 20%

N's online tilt vs G +20%

Recovery & horizon

Churn-back rate b 8%

Horizon (periods) 24

G = G_off + G_on, N = N_off + N_on
Offline grows at g_off (both)
Online: G_on grows at g_on_G
   N_on grows at g_on_N
Shock at t_shock:
  N takes a·G, split by channel
  (weighted by N's online tilt)
Recovery: ΔG = b·N (per channel)

G pre-shock

—

G post-shock

—

G at horizon

—

G online mix (end)

—

G CAGR (full)

—

G CAGR (post-shock)

—

N CAGR (post-shock)

—

N online mix (end)

—

G and N over time

Brand G Entrant N G + N (total)

G — channel split

G offline G online G total

N — channel split

N offline N online N total